If you are checking your portfolio before finishing your first coffee, the mood looks cautious. U.S. stock futures are slightly lower as investors weigh the risk of a federal shutdown alongside a busy corporate and legal news day. Contracts tied to the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are each down about 0.2%, a modest pullback that comes even as major benchmarks are tracking gains for September. The S&P 500 is on pace for a fifth straight positive month, which makes today’s political timeline especially important. Mixed signals across assets, from record-setting gold to steady Treasury yields, underscore how uncertainty is shaping sentiment.
Market setup before the open
Equity futures are soft, with the three major index contracts off around 0.2% ahead of the bell. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.14%, a level that points to stability in rates despite the political noise. Gold is easing after touching a new all-time high, with prices near $3,840 per ounce as investors balance haven demand with profit taking. U.S. crude is around $62.90 a barrel, down roughly 1% and extending the prior day’s slide as supply expectations shift. In crypto, Bitcoin is trading near $113,000, below an overnight peak around $114,800, a reminder that risk appetite is restrained while Washington deliberates.
Federal funding impasse and shutdown risk
A meeting between the President and congressional leaders did not produce a spending compromise, keeping the clock running on a potential government halt. Without Senate passage today, federal operations would stop at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday, a deadline that is now steering intraday trading themes. The proposed stopgap would fund the government into mid-November, but Senate rules require seven Democratic votes to advance the bill procedurally, and that math has kept negotiations on a knife’s edge. A key sticking point is the push from Democrats to reinstate certain healthcare subsidies within the package, which has added complexity to an already tight timeline. A shutdown would be the first since the five-week closure spanning late 2018 to early 2019, and markets are treating the risk as a near-term headwind for equities, especially for sectors tied to federal spending and consumer confidence.
Nike earnings preview
After the close, Nike will report fiscal first quarter results that could help set the tone for consumer and retail stocks into the holiday season. Visible Alpha consensus calls for adjusted EPS of about $0.26, implying a decline of more than 60% from last year, on revenue of roughly $11 billion, about 5% lower year over year. The stock is little changed premarket near $70 after rebounding off yearly lows, and some analysts think a credible turnaround could put triple-digit prices back in sight. Investors want clarity on whether inventory discipline is taking hold, if the product pipeline can reignite demand, and how direct-to-consumer momentum is shaping margins. Regional performance, including China trends and North America wholesale dynamics, will be closely parsed given Nike’s role as a Dow component and a bellwether for brand execution.
YouTube–Trump legal settlement
Alphabet is in focus after YouTube agreed to pay $24.5 million to resolve litigation tied to the suspension of the former President’s account following the events of Jan. 6, 2021. Of that sum, roughly $22 million will be directed on Donald Trump’s behalf to the Trust for the National Mall, earmarked for a $200 million White House ballroom project. The agreement follows similar resolutions involving X and Meta’s Facebook, suggesting a broader industry effort to put legacy disputes behind them. Alphabet shares are flat in premarket trading, indicating limited investor concern about the financial impact. Even so, the settlement highlights evolving platform policies, liability considerations, and the cost of content moderation decisions that can ripple across user growth and ad ecosystems.
ExxonMobil workforce restructuring
ExxonMobil plans to eliminate about 2,000 positions, or roughly 4% of its workforce, as it consolidates smaller offices into regional hubs. The moves are part of a broader organizational revamp that aligns the company with sector-wide efforts to streamline costs. Management framed the reductions in an employee memo from CEO Darren Woods, while shares are down less than 1% premarket. Weaker oil prices have pressured the group, with added supply from OPEC+ weighing on sentiment and capital allocation decisions. For investors, the cuts reinforce how energy companies are balancing efficiency targets with commodity volatility.
What to watch next
All eyes are on Washington for any motion toward a Senate vote on a stopgap funding bill, potential tweaks to healthcare subsidy provisions, and the clock as it approaches the midnight deadline. After hours, Nike’s results and guidance will offer a read on margins, inventory progress, China demand, and readiness for the holiday quarter. On the macro front, traders will monitor whether gold extends gains after notching a record, while oil’s trajectory could reset if supply expectations shift again. The 10-year yield near 4.14% remains a key anchor for equity valuations and sector leadership. Finally, watch whether month-end flows can keep the S&P 500 on track for a fifth consecutive monthly gain despite political risk and cross-asset contradictions.