If you are watching your health costs or waiting on a passport, what happens at 2 p.m. ET Monday could affect you. The president plans to bring the four top congressional leaders to the Oval Office in a late push to avoid a federal government shutdown before a Tuesday night funding deadline. House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Republican leader John Thune, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer are expected to attend. The meeting marks a sharp shift after talks were canceled days earlier, and it sets up a high-stakes test of whether the White House and Congress can agree on a short-term plan to fund the government.
The clock is tight. Portions of the government could begin shutting down as early as Wednesday morning if no deal emerges. Agencies have already been told to brace for disruptions, and the standoff is increasingly intertwined with a fight over healthcare costs that touches tens of millions of households.
Abrupt reversal as pressure mounts
The White House meeting follows a tense week in which the president scrapped a bipartisan session and criticized Democratic conditions for supporting a short-term funding bill. Over the weekend, Johnson said he spoke extensively with the president, and both Democratic leaders agreed to come to the table. It is not yet clear if the president intends to haggle over legislative text or to use the meeting to increase pressure on Congress. The pivot comes as federal departments finalize contingency plans and warn of furloughs and paused services if funding lapses.
While the symbolism of an Oval Office gathering is significant, the substance will hinge on whether either side alters its stance on what belongs in a stopgap bill. With hours to go, even minor adjustments could determine whether the Senate can move a measure in time.
Where Congress stands
The House, operating with a narrow Republican majority, passed a seven-week continuing resolution earlier in September to keep agencies funded temporarily. That bill heads to the Senate, where it faces resistance and will need at least eight Democratic votes to clear a procedural hurdle. Senate leaders have signaled that the chamber will not simply rubber-stamp the House plan without adjustments. The timeline is tight since any Senate changes would send the bill back to the House, potentially inviting another round of brinkmanship.
In short, the path to averting a shutdown likely runs through bipartisan cooperation in the Senate, followed by swift House action. Even a brief delay could ripple across agencies that rely on predictable funding.
The core dispute: healthcare subsidies or a clean CR
Democrats want the short-term bill to extend Affordable Care Act premium subsidies that are set to expire. They warn that, without action, more than 20 million people could face steep hikes in premiums, deductibles, and copays. Party leaders say they are prepared to negotiate at any hour to keep the government open while protecting household healthcare costs. Many Democrats argue Republicans have enabled the president to use spending leverage for political aims instead of national priorities, and they describe their caucus as unified around safeguarding subsidies before costs jump.
Republicans counter that the House-passed continuing resolution is a neutral bridge to maintain operations without partisan add-ons. They say the healthcare subsidy issue can be resolved before its end-of-year deadline and accuse Democrats of leveraging a shutdown threat to win an unrelated policy victory. GOP leaders insist the Senate should quickly pass the House bill to prevent disruptions and then debate health policy on its own timetable.
What to expect from the White House meeting
Democratic leaders have signaled cautious optimism that a focused discussion could produce movement, though they warn that a meeting dominated by grievances would stall progress. Reporting from inside the White House suggests the president sees little chance for a breakthrough. Some aides reportedly believe a shutdown could create room for expanded executive actions that target what the president describes as waste and abuse. If that view prevails, the session may be geared more toward setting the narrative than cutting a deal.
For now, the practical question is whether Johnson, Thune, Jeffries, and Schumer can find common ground on a narrow bill that can pass both chambers in time. Any agreement would likely be modest but meaningful if it keeps agencies open while negotiations continue on the larger spending package.
Consequences if talks fail
A funding lapse would trigger immediate planning across federal departments. Many employees deemed nonessential would be furloughed, and some services could slow or pause. Families could see delays for passports, small business loans, and housing programs. Research grants might be postponed, and certain permitting and contracting timelines would slip. The longer a shutdown lasts, the wider the impacts become, from travel to public health to customer service at agencies people rely on every week.
For households already stretching budgets, uncertainty around healthcare costs adds another layer of strain. That is why the argument over Affordable Care Act subsidies is central to the standoff rather than a side issue.
Politics and the path forward
Both parties are working to shape public opinion before the deadline. Republicans argue the responsibility rests with Senate Democrats to accept a temporary funding patch without policy conditions. Democrats counter that Republicans are risking a shutdown instead of addressing healthcare cost spikes for millions of families. Each side is betting that voters will blame the other if the lights go out.
The next 24 hours will reveal whether the White House meeting changes the calculus. If leaders leave the Oval Office with a narrow agreement, the Senate could move quickly. If they do not, the countdown will continue and agencies will finalize shutdown playbooks.
Key questions to watch
Will the White House session produce any change to the continuing resolution, especially on premium subsidies, that can unlock Senate votes. Can Senate Republicans attract enough Democratic support without a healthcare provision, or will GOP leaders agree to adjust the bill to address the cost issue. How will the president approach the meeting, negotiation or confrontation, and how will that shape what Johnson, Thune, Jeffries, and Schumer do next. If no agreement emerges by Monday night, what final shutdown preparations will agencies complete before funding expires on Tuesday.