If you are wondering how serious the coming flu season might be, you are not alone. Health officials expect a possibly moderate 2025–2026 season, yet they continue to recommend vaccination for nearly everyone who is eligible. The message is simple and timely as fall nears. Even healthy people can develop severe complications from influenza, and the flu still causes hospitalizations and deaths each year. The primary goal of the flu shot is to reduce the risk of serious outcomes, and that protection matters for you and the people around you.
What to expect from the 2025–2026 flu season
Forecasting flu trends is never exact. The prior U.S. season was unusually severe, with preliminary CDC estimates of 47–82 million illnesses, 610,000–1.3 million hospitalizations, and 27,000–130,000 deaths. Southern Hemisphere signals offer a cautionary note, as Australia reported one of its strongest seasons in a decade, which can foreshadow Northern Hemisphere activity. In the United States, flu typically runs from October through March, with peak activity often between December and February, though it can vary. Overall respiratory illness burden, including COVID-19 and RSV, is projected to be comparable to last year.
Some experts expect a more average-to-moderate flu season, citing the lack of new global strains and the rarity of back-to-back very severe years. That outlook is not a guarantee. Flu can peak early or late and circulating strains can shift. Because of this variability, annual vaccination remains the most reliable preventive step. The earlier you plan, the easier it is to align with the season’s timing and your schedule.
Who should get vaccinated
CDC guidance continues to recommend a flu vaccine for everyone 6 months and older each season. Infants younger than 6 months are too young for vaccination, and people with severe, life‑threatening allergies to vaccine components should not receive it. Extra urgency applies to those at higher risk of complications, including older adults, young children, people with weakened immune systems, and anyone with significant underlying medical conditions as advised by a clinician. If you live with or care for someone at higher risk, your vaccination helps protect them as well. When in doubt, ask your healthcare provider about your situation.
Vaccine supply, access, and options
Manufacturers project up to 154 million flu vaccine doses will be available in the United States for 2025–2026. Most insurers cover flu shots, often at no additional cost. If you are uninsured, out-of-pocket prices typically range from about $20 to $100 depending on the location and product. You can get vaccinated at pharmacies, primary care offices, clinics, and many community health settings, often without an appointment. A needle-free alternative, the FluMist nasal spray, is FDA approved for ages 2 to 49 and can be self-administered or given by a caregiver when appropriate.
When to time your shot
Aim to get vaccinated in early fall, ideally before the end of October. Your body needs about two weeks to build protection after vaccination. Immunity can diminish over time, especially in older adults, which is why many clinicians suggest late October in typical years to balance early protection with durability. That said, peaks can arrive as early as October or as late as February, so vaccination remains beneficial even after October. Travel plans, recent illness, and coordination with other recommended vaccines can also guide your timing.
How well the vaccine works and what it contains
This season’s formulation targets three major influenza groups that are circulating globally. Effectiveness varies by year, but the flu vaccine consistently aims to lower the risk of hospitalization and death by roughly 40 to 60 percent, even if you still get infected. Side effects are generally mild and brief, such as arm soreness, fatigue, headache, or a low-grade fever. For most people, the benefits of vaccination far outweigh these temporary symptoms. If you have specific medical concerns, discuss your options with your healthcare provider.
Flu basics and everyday precautions
Influenza is a contagious viral infection that affects the respiratory tract. Flu viruses that infect people include Types A, B, and C, with Type A typically linked to the greatest disease burden. Common symptoms mix respiratory issues with systemic ones, often including fever, cough or sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, muscle aches, headache, and fatigue. Good habits still help reduce spread. Stay home when sick, cover coughs and sneezes, wash hands regularly, and improve indoor air quality while avoiding crowding when possible, especially in higher-risk settings.
Why vaccination matters now
Getting a flu shot is one of the simplest ways to reduce your risk of severe illness, hospitalization, and death. It also supports community protection by lowering the chance you pass the virus to someone vulnerable, such as an older neighbor or a new baby in your family. Even in seasons when overall effectiveness settles near the halfway mark, the reduction in severe outcomes is meaningful at the population level. A recent national poll shows about 16 percent of parents are skipping or postponing childhood vaccinations due to safety concerns, and clinicians worry that trend could worsen outcomes. During the 2024–2025 season, pediatric flu deaths rose to a record high for a non-pandemic year, and the vast majority occurred in children who were not fully vaccinated.
Policy and guidance updates
Flu vaccine recommendations this year remain consistent with last season’s guidance. Federal officials have adjusted some COVID-19 vaccination recommendations for certain healthy adults under 65, pregnant individuals, and healthy children, which may affect how families plan their fall visits. The CDC’s immunization committee also advised against vaccines containing thimerosal, a preservative found in a small fraction of vaccines; thimerosal was removed from all childhood vaccines in the United States in 2001. For most people, the practical steps are unchanged. If you are eligible, get your flu shot this fall and encourage those around you to do the same.
