Gold is poised to leave cyclical commodities like oil and copper in the dust through the second half of 2025, according to a new outlook from BCA Research.
Roukaya Ibrahim, Commodity Strategist at the Montreal-based firm, says persistent weakness in China’s economy and rising U.S. tariffs will keep industrial demand under pressure. In contrast, demand for gold as a safe haven continues to build.
“To shift away from our defensive strategy, we’d need a more bullish global manufacturing picture,” Ibrahim noted. “But we’re not there yet.”
Gold prices remain in a consolidation zone between $3,300 and $3,400 an ounce, but Ibrahim expects a breakout toward April’s record of $3,500. “The next major move will likely be to the upside,” she said, citing ongoing central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty under a second Trump administration.
Trump’s surprise move to impose a 50% tariff on all copper imports, effective August 1, has already triggered global trade distortions. Copper is now flooding into New York warehouses, and U.S. futures are trading at record premiums over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices. This arbitrage frenzy highlights volatility in the industrial metals market.
Meanwhile, gold-backed ETFs are attracting their fastest inflows since 2020, despite high U.S. Treasury yields. This decoupling of gold demand from interest rates signals a strong preference for gold’s safety amid global uncertainty.
BCA remains long gold and short copper—particularly on the LME—and is also underweight oil and iron ore. Silver, gold’s more industrial cousin, is another favored asset in the firm’s outlook.
A weakening U.S. dollar may offer further support for gold, making it more affordable to global buyers even at elevated prices. In short, for investors seeking shelter in turbulent times, BCA believes gold remains a valuable asset.
